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Ukrainian Economy In JanuaryApril 2000 GDP Dynamics Compared to the respective period of the previous year the real GDP increased by 5.5%. The nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2000 totaled UAH 45 166 million, in April it was UAH 12 435 million. The greatest increase in gross value added in January April was observed in industry 10.5%, trade and public catering 6.9%, construction 6.1%, transport and communications 2.1%. Industrial
output
In JanuaryApril 2000 there
was a 10.4% increase in industrial output while in the respective period
of the previous year the 2.5% decrease was observed. In April volume of
industrial output decreased by 4.5% versus the previous month and decreased
by 11.2% compared to April of 1999. Decline in production output in April
as compared to March of the current year was caused by the reduction of
the working time fund. At the same time the average daily output increased
by 1.4% compared to the previous month.
In March 15.1% of enterprises were not in ope-ration. Compared to the respective period of 1999, the volume of consumer goods produced in JanuaryApril 2000 increased by 29.3%, including increase in production of food commodities by 25.2%, alcoholic beverages by 35.0%, nonfood consumer goods by 34.7%. Agriculture
Agricultural output in JanuaryApril
2000 in all categories of agricultural entities totaled to UAH 5.5 billion
in actual prices. In relative prices agricultural output versus the respective
period of 1999 decreased by 5.2%.
Table 1
Output of Major Industrial Products in JanuaryApril 2000
Table 2
Livestock production in JanuaryApril 2000
Table 3
Livestock population on May 1, 2000, thousand heads
Construction
Total volume of construction and assembly work in JanuaryApril of the current year amounted to UAH 2.4 billion and increased by 6.8% compared to the respective period of the past year. In the first quarter of 2000 the construction entities of all forms of ownership used UAH 2.7 billion of fixed capital investments from all sources of financing. Transport In the first four months of 2000 transportation facilities of Ukraine delivered 193.1 million tons of freight that is by 3.0% less then in the respective period of the past year. Freight turnover was 117.7 billion ton-kilometers and increased by 4.8%. Since the beginning of the year the railroad shipment of goods totaled 90.7 million tons. There was 5.5% increase. Motor transport enterprises delivered 28.2 million tons of cargo to the customers. Rate of decrease was 19.4%. At the same time the freight turnover increased by 16.7% and reached 1.4 billion ton-kilometers. Main pipelines transported 70.6 tons of freight. There was a 5.2% decrease in transportation due to reduction of gas transit by 5.3% and of internal oil transportation more than by half. Transit of oil increased by 3.6%. Water transport increased cargo operations by 0.7%. Freight turnover decreased by 13%. The overall volume of water transportation totaled 3.6 million tons; the total freight turnover was 4.5 billion ton-kilometers. Volume of freight handled in commercial and fishing ports and at industrial terminals increased during four months of the current year by 8.2% compared to the respective period of the previous year and has reached 31.1 million tons due to increase in import freight traffic by 1.8 times, in transit cargo traffic by 22.4% and in internal deliveries by 18.7%. Public passenger vehicles transported 857.6 million passengers and passenger turnover totaled 21.7 billion passenger-kilometers. That is by 6.7% and 1,8% respectively less the level of January April of the previous year. Foreign Economic Activities In the first quarter of 2000 Ukraine's foreign trade turnover in commodities and services was $7.9 billion, that is by 20.2% more than in respective period of the previous year. In addition exports increased by 17.8%, imports by 22.7% and amounted to $ 3.9 billion and $4 billion respectively. Negative balance of foreign trade in commodities and services was $121.2 million. In the first quarter the foreign trade turnover of Ukraine in commodities was $6.7 billion, i.e. it increased by 23.7% compared to the first quarter of 1999. At the same time exports increased by 24.7%, imports by 22.9% and amounted to $3 billion and $3.7 billion respectively. Negative balance of foreign trade in commodities was $ 676.8 million. Compared to the first quarter of 1999, export of commodities to the CIS countries and Baltic states increased by 24%, imports by 14.9%, first of all due to the increase in trade with Russian Federation (exports increased by 39.8%, imports by 29%). In the first quarter the share of exports to the CIS and Baltic countries was 27.7%, exports to the other countries of the world accounted for 72.3%. The highest percentage of the overall volume of Ukrainian export falls to the export deliveries to the following countries: Russia 20.4% of the overall Ukrainian export, Turkey 6.7%, the USA 6.2%, China 5.3%, Germany 4.9%, Italy 4.3%, Poland 3.6% and Bulgaria 3.5%. Ferrous metals deliveries accounted for 37.8% of the overall exports, products of chemical industry and of other related to it branches 11.2%, mineral products 10.7% (out of them mineral fuel, oil and petroleum products make 6.7%), machinery and equipment 7.2% (including 4.8% of mechanical machinery and equipment and 2.4% of electrical ones), aluminum and aluminum products 4.1%, textiles and textile products 3,7%. In the first quarter of 2000 imports from CIS and Baltic countries to Ukraine accounted for 64.9% of overall imports. The biggest share of the overall import deliveries came from Russia 54.4%, Germany 6.2%, Turkmenistan 3.8%, Bilorus 2.7%, the USA 2.3%, Italy and Kazakhstan 2% each. Among the goods imported in JanuaryApril coal, oil and petroleum products (including natural gas 39.5%) rank first accounting for 52.3% of overall imports. Deliveries of machinery and equipment made up 11.3% of imports. Chemical products represented 4.5%, base metals and products made of them equaled to 3.9%, plastics and rubber accounted for 3.6% of overall imports. Overall volume of exported services totaled $ 870.9 million, imported services accounted for $ 315.3 million. Positive balance was $ 555.6 million. Transportation services made up the biggest share of the overall volume of Ukrainian exports (85.1%). In the Ukrainian imports state services ranked first and accounted for 50.7%. Transportation services made up 21.2% and communication services amounted to 8.5% of imports. Traditionally, 2/3 of services was exported to the CIS and Baltic countries and more than 95% of them were exported to Russia. Import of services increased by $ 52.9 million (by 1.2 times). Foreign Direct Investments In the first quarter foreign direct investments in the economy of Ukraine amounted to $ 178.3 million (that is by 71.1% more than in the first quarter of 1999) including investments from CIS and Baltic countries that accounted for only $2.5 million (1.4% of the overall amount of FDI). As of April 1, 2000 the overall volume of foreign direct investments amounted to $ 3374.9 million. The largest portions of investments are made by non-residents from the following countries: the USA $ 613.9 million (18.2% of overall investments), the Netherlands $ 307.5 million (9.1%), United Kingdom $264.3 million (7.8%), Cyprus $241.6 million (7.2%), Germany $ 226.1 million (6.7%), South Korea $171.2 million (5.1%), Switzerland $141.0 million (4.2%), Virgin Islands (Britain) $ 139.6 million (4.1%). Foreign investors are mainly interested in the following sectors: food industry $ 691.9 million invested (20.5% of the overall volume of investment), internal trade $573.1 million (17%), machine building and metalwork $339.4 (10.1%), finance, credits and insurance $204.3 million (6.1%), fuel industry $190.2 million (5.6%), Consumer Market The overall volume of sales of consumer goods sold through all channels of distribution in JanuaryApril 2000 increase by 8.2% (in relative prices) compared to the respective period of 1999. Retail turnover of officially registered enterprises accounted for UAH 8069.4 million and increased by 10.1% compared to January April of 1999. Prices The increase in consumer prices in April was 1.7%. Since the beginning of the year prices increased by 11.2%. The increase in prices established by manufacturers was 2.0% in April. Since the beginning of the year it was 10.1%. As of April1, 2000 debit indebtedness and credit indebtedness totaled UAH 18502.6 million and UAH 255376.6 million respectively. Compared to the beginning of the year debit indebtedness increased by 8.7%, credit indebtedness by 11.4%. As of April 1, 2000 the total amount of non-payments to the budget by economic entities accounted for over UAH 22 billion or 10% of internal debt, and 70% of it was past debt. Money. Credits. Banks As of the end of April monetary base was UAH 13406.6 million (at the end of the month it was UAH 11711 million), the M0 aggregate was UAH 10632 million and UAH 8777 million respectively, aggregate M3 amounted to UAH 25086 million and UAH 22052 million. Since April 4, 2000 the NBU established a new discount rate at the level of 29% and a lombard rate at the level of 34%. The balance of indebtedness related to credits granted by Ukrainian banks increased by 5% or by UAH1152.2 million in March and as of April 1, 2000 it amounted to UAH 24104 million including UAH 10913 million of credits denominated in national currency. Interest rate on credits of commercial banks was 35.7% in March (41.0% in February) and deposit interest rate was 11.1% (14.1% in February). Finances Table 4 Revenues and Expenditures of Consolidated and State Budget of Ukraine, UAH million
As of May 10, 2000 gold and currency reserves of NBU accounted for $ 1062 million ($ 1230 million at the beginning of the year). As of the beginning of April official hryvnia exchange rate to US dollar was UAH 542.76/100 USD, average monthly rate in April was UAH 542.7/ 100 USD (official rate as of May 15 was UAH 539.31/100 USD. Income of the population In JanuaryMarch 2000 nominal incomes of the population increased by 38,4% compared with the respective period of 1999. At the same time real incomes defined by way of exclusion of mandatory payments, voluntary donation and adjusted for inflation increased by 11.5%. Average monthly income per capita was UAH 113.6 in JanuaryMarch 2000. Labor Market. Demographic Situation As of May 1, 2000 there was 1234.1 thousand of officially registered unemployed in Ukraine (5.1% increase since the beginning of the year). As of April 4, 2000 the population of Ukraine was 49.6 million. In the first quarter of the current year the population decreased almost by 150 thou-sand mainly due to the natural reasons (the natural decline of the population was 141 thousand). Due to migration outflow the population of Ukraine decreased by 7 thousand. In the first quarter of 2000 the birth rate was 7.7 newborns per 1000 of population. This figure exceeds the birth rate in the respective period of the previous year (7.6 newborns per 1000). At the same time the death rate increased from 16.6 to 19.1 per 1000 of population. Unfavorable trends are observed in the marriage situation. The number of marriages declined from 4.2 (in the first quarter of 1999) to 3.4 per 1000 of population in the first quarter of 2000. The divorce rate increased from 3.3 to 3.8. Review and comments were prepared by Olexander Koshik, Ph.D in economics Source: The State Committee
on Statistics and the National Bank of Ukraine. Copyright© 2000, The Ukrainian Economic Monitor |
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