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Ukrainian Economy In January—April 2000

GDP Dynamics


Compared to the respective period of the previous year the real GDP increased by 5.5%. The nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2000 totaled UAH 45 166 million, in April it was UAH 12 435 million.

The greatest increase in gross value added in January — April was observed in industry — 10.5%, trade and public catering — 6.9%, construction — 6.1%, transport and communications — 2.1%.

Industrial output
In January—April 2000 there was a 10.4% increase in industrial output while in the respective period of the previous year the 2.5% decrease was observed. In April volume of industrial output decreased by 4.5% versus the previous month and decreased by 11.2% compared to April of 1999. Decline in production output in April as compared to March of the current year was caused by the reduction of the working time fund. At the same time the average daily output increased by 1.4% compared to the previous month.

In March 15.1% of enterprises were not in ope-ration.

Compared to the respective period of 1999, the volume of consumer goods produced in January—April 2000 increased by 29.3%, including increase in production of food commodities by 25.2%, alcoholic beverages — by 35.0%, nonfood consumer goods — by 34.7%.

Agriculture
Agricultural output in January—April 2000 in all categories of agricultural entities totaled to UAH 5.5 billion in actual prices. In relative prices agricultural output versus the respective period of 1999 decreased by 5.2%.
Table 1

Output of Major Industrial Products in January—April 2000

Product
January—April 2000
April
Increase, decrease (–)
in January—April 2000 compared to January—April 1999 , %
Electric power, billion kW/hours
61.8
12.9
–0.5
Oil, thousand tons
1231
300
–2.0
Natural gas, billion m3
6.0
1.4
0.4
Coal, million tons
22.2
5.4
8.2
Motor gasoline, thousand tons
509
159
–49.8
Diesel fuel, thousand tons
631
213
–49.6
Fuel oil, thousand tons
584
174
–62.2
Iron ore, thousand tons
17325
4569
19.5
Manganese ore, thousand tons
773
235
33.7
Steel, thousand tons
9988
2627
17.4
Final rolled metal, thousand tons
6644
1756
2.7
Steel tubes, thousand tons
405
127
9.4
Automobiles, units
9677
2684
103.9
Tractors, units
1442
400
–33.5
Synthetic ammonia, thousand tons
1436
356
–7.7
Sulphuric acid, thousand tons
407
60.2
–2.5
Soda ash, thousand tons
174
44.4
11.4
Caustic soda, thousand tons
37.8
7.0
32.6
Mineral fertilizers, thousand tons
846
205
1.3
Synthetic resins and plastics, thousand tons
44.9
9.2
17.0
Chemical thread and fiber, thousand tons
9.1
2.2
18.2
Paper, thousand tons
28.9
8.1
34.8
Cardboard, thousand tons
83.5
24.2
23.5
Cement, thousand tons
1224
473
5.2
Meat, thousand tons
92.3
22.7
16.0
Milk, thousand tons
192
47.8
4.9
Butter, thousand tons
18.6
5.8
6.1
Vegetable oil, thousand tons
277
71.5
79.1
Textiles, million sq. m.
23.2
6.2
67.0
Knitted goods, thousand units.
3257
876
45.0
Footwear, thousand pairs
3618
776
5.6
Refrigerators, thousand units
120
38.8
43.1
Table 2

Livestock production in January—April 2000

Product
All categories of agricultural entities
Including private sector
2000
2000 to 1999, %.
2000.
2000 to 1999, %.
Meat (in live weight), thousand tons
926.6
103.1
665.8
100.9
Milk, thousand tons
3078.6
92.6
2112.4
103.9
Eggs, million
3226.4
97.9
2114.3
101.4
Table 3

Livestock population on May 1, 2000, thousand heads

Livestock
All categories of entities
Including private sector
2000
2000 to 1999, %.
2000
2000 to1999, %.
Cattle
10693.8
86.3
4301.3
100.9
including cows
5257.0
89.6
3036.2
101.0
Pigs
9162.7
87.6
5901.2
97.4
Sheep and goats
2108.2
90.0
1509.3
96.8
Poultry
119391
90.0
95745
97.5
Construction

Total volume of construction and assembly work in January—April of the current year amounted to UAH 2.4 billion and increased by 6.8% compared to the respective period of the past year. In the first quarter of 2000 the construction entities of all forms of ownership used UAH 2.7 billion of fixed capital investments from all sources of financing.

Transport

In the first four months of 2000 transportation facilities of Ukraine delivered 193.1 million tons of freight that is by 3.0% less then in the respective period of the past year. Freight turnover was 117.7 billion ton-kilometers and increased by 4.8%.

Since the beginning of the year the railroad shipment of goods totaled 90.7 million tons. There was 5.5% increase.

Motor transport enterprises delivered 28.2 million tons of cargo to the customers. Rate of decrease was 19.4%. At the same time the freight turnover increased by 16.7% and reached 1.4 billion ton-kilometers.

Main pipelines transported 70.6 tons of freight. There was a 5.2% decrease in transportation due to reduction of gas transit by 5.3% and of internal oil transportation more than by half. Transit of oil increased by 3.6%.

Water transport increased cargo operations by 0.7%. Freight turnover decreased by 13%. The overall volume of water transportation totaled 3.6 million tons; the total freight turnover was 4.5 billion ton-kilometers.

Volume of freight handled in commercial and fishing ports and at industrial terminals increased during four months of the current year by 8.2% compared to the respective period of the previous year and has reached 31.1 million tons due to increase in import freight traffic by 1.8 times, in transit cargo traffic — by 22.4% and in internal deliveries — by 18.7%.

Public passenger vehicles transported 857.6 million passengers and passenger turnover totaled 21.7 billion passenger-kilometers. That is by 6.7% and 1,8% respectively less the level of January — April of the previous year.


Foreign Economic Activities

In the first quarter of 2000 Ukraine's foreign trade turnover in commodities and services was $7.9 billion, that is by 20.2% more than in respective period of the previous year. In addition exports increased by 17.8%, imports — by 22.7% and amounted to $ 3.9 billion and $4 billion respectively. Negative balance of foreign trade in commodities and services was $121.2 million.

In the first quarter the foreign trade turnover of Ukraine in commodities was $6.7 billion, i.e. it increased by 23.7% compared to the first quarter of 1999. At the same time exports increased by 24.7%, imports — by 22.9% and amounted to $3 billion and $3.7 billion respectively. Negative balance of foreign trade in commodities was $ 676.8 million.

Compared to the first quarter of 1999, export of commodities to the CIS countries and Baltic states increased by 24%, imports — by 14.9%, first of all due to the increase in trade with Russian Federation (exports increased by 39.8%, imports — by 29%).

In the first quarter the share of exports to the CIS and Baltic countries was 27.7%, exports to the other countries of the world accounted for 72.3%. The highest percentage of the overall volume of Ukrainian export falls to the export deliveries to the following countries: Russia — 20.4% of the overall Ukrainian export, Turkey — 6.7%, the USA — 6.2%, China — 5.3%, Germany — 4.9%, Italy — 4.3%, Poland — 3.6% and Bulgaria — 3.5%.

Ferrous metals deliveries accounted for 37.8% of the overall exports, products of chemical industry and of other related to it branches — 11.2%, mineral products — 10.7% (out of them mineral fuel, oil and petroleum products make 6.7%), machinery and equipment — 7.2% (including 4.8% of mechanical machinery and equipment and 2.4% of electrical ones), aluminum and aluminum products — 4.1%, textiles and textile products — 3,7%.

In the first quarter of 2000 imports from CIS and Baltic countries to Ukraine accounted for 64.9% of overall imports. The biggest share of the overall import deliveries came from Russia — 54.4%, Germany — 6.2%, Turkmenistan — 3.8%, Bilorus — 2.7%, the USA — 2.3%, Italy and Kazakhstan — 2% each.

Among the goods imported in January—April coal, oil and petroleum products (including natural gas — 39.5%) rank first accounting for 52.3% of overall imports. Deliveries of machinery and equipment made up 11.3% of imports. Chemical products represented 4.5%, base metals and products made of them equaled to 3.9%, plastics and rubber accounted for 3.6% of overall imports.

Overall volume of exported services totaled $ 870.9 million, imported services accounted for $ 315.3 million. Positive balance was $ 555.6 million.

Transportation services made up the biggest share of the overall volume of Ukrainian exports (85.1%). In the Ukrainian imports state services ranked first and accounted for 50.7%. Transportation services made up 21.2% and communication services amounted to 8.5% of imports.

Traditionally, 2/3 of services was exported to the CIS and Baltic countries and more than 95% of them were exported to Russia.

Import of services increased by $ 52.9 million (by 1.2 times).


Foreign Direct Investments

In the first quarter foreign direct investments in the economy of Ukraine amounted to $ 178.3 million (that is by 71.1% more than in the first quarter of 1999) including investments from CIS and Baltic countries that accounted for only $2.5 million (1.4% of the overall amount of FDI).

As of April 1, 2000 the overall volume of foreign direct investments amounted to $ 3374.9 million.

The largest portions of investments are made by non-residents from the following countries: the USA — $ 613.9 million (18.2% of overall investments), the Netherlands — $ 307.5 million (9.1%), United Kingdom — $264.3 million (7.8%), Cyprus — $241.6 million (7.2%), Germany — $ 226.1 million (6.7%), South Korea — $171.2 million (5.1%), Switzerland $141.0 million (4.2%), Virgin Islands (Britain) — $ 139.6 million (4.1%).

Foreign investors are mainly interested in the following sectors: food industry — $ 691.9 million invested (20.5% of the overall volume of investment), internal trade — $573.1 million (17%), machine building and metalwork — $339.4 (10.1%), finance, credits and insurance — $204.3 million (6.1%), fuel industry — $190.2 million (5.6%),


Consumer Market

The overall volume of sales of consumer goods sold through all channels of distribution in January—April 2000 increase by 8.2% (in relative prices) compared to the respective period of 1999. Retail turnover of officially registered enterprises accounted for UAH 8069.4 million and increased by 10.1% compared to January — April of 1999.

Prices

The increase in consumer prices in April was 1.7%. Since the beginning of the year prices increased by 11.2%. The increase in prices established by manufacturers was 2.0% in April. Since the beginning of the year it was 10.1%.

As of April1, 2000 debit indebtedness and credit indebtedness totaled UAH 18502.6 million and UAH 255376.6 million respectively. Compared to the beginning of the year debit indebtedness increased by 8.7%, credit indebtedness — by 11.4%.

As of April 1, 2000 the total amount of non-payments to the budget by economic entities accounted for over UAH 22 billion or 10% of internal debt, and 70% of it was past debt.


Money. Credits. Banks

As of the end of April monetary base was UAH 13406.6 million (at the end of the month it was UAH 11711 million), the M0 aggregate was UAH 10632 million and UAH 8777 million respectively, aggregate M3 amounted to UAH 25086 million and UAH 22052 million.

Since April 4, 2000 the NBU established a new discount rate at the level of 29% and a lombard rate at the level of 34%.

The balance of indebtedness related to credits granted by Ukrainian banks increased by 5% or by UAH1152.2 million in March and as of April 1, 2000 it amounted to UAH 24104 million including UAH 10913 million of credits denominated in national currency.

Interest rate on credits of commercial banks was 35.7% in March (41.0% in February) and deposit interest rate was 11.1% (14.1% in February).


Finances

Table 4

Revenues and Expenditures of Consolidated and State Budget of Ukraine, UAH million

Item
Consolidated budget
Including State Budget
in January—March of 2000
as % of GDP
in January—March of 2000
as % of GDP
Total revenues
8956.4
27.4
6524.0
19.9
including:
Tax revenues — total
5880.1
18.0
3729.8
11.4
including
enterprise profit tax
1501.2
4.6
1093.1
3.3
personal income tax
1175.9
3.6
0.1
0.0
payment for land
223.9
0.7
value-added tax
1885.7
5.8
1885.7
5.8
excise tax
323.3
1.0
300.4
0.9
local taxes and fees
101.6
0.3
Non-tax revenues — total
1932.7
5.9
1642.5
5.0
including:
receipts from privatization
420.0
1.3
385.3
1.2
receipts of depreciation charges
50.7
0.2
50.7
0.2
state duty
70.1
0.2
47.6
0.1
State target funds
1131.0
3.5
924.5
2.8
Total expenditures
7969.5
24.4
5701.2
17.4
including expenditures on:
state administration
520.4
1.6
366.8
1.1
law enforcement activities
and ensuring security of the state
419.9
1.3
372.7
1.1
social and cultural establishments
and activities
3416.1
10.5
1265.5
3.9
industry, power generation
and construction
471.6
1.4
437.1
1.3
agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
94.0
0.3
38.2
0.1
transport, roads, communications, telecommunications and computer science
260.5
0.8
34.6
0.1
housing and public utilities
168.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
national defense
371.3
1.1
369.7
1.1
Chornobyl relief fund
337.0
1.0
337.0
1.0
public specialized funds
507.9
1.6
493.3
1.5
Excess of receipts over expenditures
986.9
3.0
822.8
2.5

As of May 10, 2000 gold and currency reserves of NBU accounted for $ 1062 million ($ 1230 million at the beginning of the year).

As of the beginning of April official hryvnia exchange rate to US dollar was UAH 542.76/100 USD, average monthly rate in April was UAH 542.7/ 100 USD (official rate as of May 15 was UAH 539.31/100 USD.


Income of the population

In January—March 2000 nominal incomes of the population increased by 38,4% compared with the respective period of 1999. At the same time real incomes defined by way of exclusion of mandatory payments, voluntary donation and adjusted for inflation increased by 11.5%. Average monthly income per capita was UAH 113.6 in January—March 2000.

Labor Market. Demographic Situation

As of May 1, 2000 there was 1234.1 thousand of officially registered unemployed in Ukraine (5.1% increase since the beginning of the year).

As of April 4, 2000 the population of Ukraine was 49.6 million. In the first quarter of the current year the population decreased almost by 150 thou-sand mainly due to the natural reasons (the natural decline of the population was 141 thousand). Due to migration outflow the population of Ukraine decreased by 7 thousand.

In the first quarter of 2000 the birth rate was 7.7 newborns per 1000 of population. This figure exceeds the birth rate in the respective period of the previous year (7.6 newborns per 1000). At the same time the death rate increased from 16.6 to 19.1 per 1000 of population.

Unfavorable trends are observed in the marriage situation. The number of marriages declined from 4.2 (in the first quarter of 1999) to 3.4 per 1000 of population in the first quarter of 2000. The divorce rate increased from 3.3 to 3.8.


Review and comments were prepared by Olexander Koshik, Ph.D in economics

Source: The State Committee on Statistics and the National Bank of Ukraine.
The official hryvnia rate as of late March 2000 100 USD/542.76 UAH.


Copyright© 2000, The Ukrainian Economic Monitor